Analyst Mati Greensapn finds Bitcoin contributor Hal Finney’s $300 trillion Bitcoin valuation a conservative oneWe are closer than along the path of hyperbitcoinization – Adam Back
Popular analyst PlanB who first used the stock-to-flow model to determine Bitcoin price shared a note written by Hal Finney, a computer scientist and noted cryptographer known in the crypto community for his contribution to the development of the Bitcoin network.
The note from years back talks about the scenario of Bitcoin becoming successful and a dominant payment system in use throughout the world. In that scenario, he projects
“the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.”
That would put BTC in the range of $100 trillion to $300 trillion, based on the estimated value of total worldwide household wealth. As per this, each bitcoin gets a value of about $10 million.
But even this is a conservative number as Mati Greenspan, founder of newsletter Quantum Economics, points out,
“he didn’t account for lost coins. His estimate of total world wealth is way small. Perhaps considered conservative when he wrote it but today it’s probably closer to a few quadrillion.”
This much wealth will put Bitcoin even beyond a million dollars.
“Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against?” concluded Finney. And this is another reason, “quant investors like bitcoin.”
The Path to Hyperbitconization
Blockstream founder and CEO, Adam Back says in the current world of negative interest rates, MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) and inflation, we are closer to the path of hyperbitcoinzation.
“It’s closer than it sounds as along the path of hyperbitcoinization, the USD inflation rises, eg aided by Modern Monetary Theory rationale for high inflation, so $1 becomes worth say 10c over a decade or two of monetary craziness, then $10mil/BTC is $1mil/BTC in today’s money.”
$100k per Bitcoin is also not too far away, according to him, given that Bitcoin has already surpassed $10,000 several times. Currently, we are trading at $8,150, up 11.39% year-to-date. Back said:
“And $100k Bitcoin doesn’t seem so far given we already crossed $10k threshold a few times when few expected even $1k some years back and $10k seemed crazy.”
Analyst PlanB who has predicted around $50k to $100k BTC top this time “totally agree” with this as he says,
“Must admit that I probably would not have this level of confidence (and interest) in bitcoin, if I would not have had 20+ years experience investing $100B AUM and personally seeing the unintended consequences of quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rates.”
Back says it’s “2017 all over.”