Bitcoin is currently “cheap” relative to its trend, according to the chief executive officer of cryptocurrency investment firm Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead.
In a monthly newsletter, Morehead argued that now is the best time to buy bitcoin as the flagship cryptocurrency has only deviated from its trend so significantly 20.3% of the time over its 11-year existence.
For new investors, it’s best to buy when the market is well below trend. Now is one of those times.#Bitcoin has only been this “cheap” relative to its trend 20.3% of the past 11 years.
More perspectives on market timing in our June investor letter: https://t.co/AOvhFyxBJh pic.twitter.com/2bsxbw5Iay
— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) June 16, 2021
In the newsletter, the CEO argued that year-on-year returns do not necessarily indicate bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, as its “year-on-year return never went literally off-the-chart like in past peaks.” Bitocin, he added, is trading at 281% year-on-year, which to him is “entirely plausible given the money printing that has occurred in that period.”
He also noted that three news events were behind last month’s crypto market crash. One of those events were news from a crackdown in China, which Morehead noted has happened multiple times in the past. He listed at least eight incidents over the last few years where China cracked down on the crypto industry, but these were followed by significant gains.
Morehead has in the past noted that investors who sell based on China’s crackdowns often miss out on significant gains.
Investors who sell on China “bans” usually end up bummed… pic.twitter.com/OKlBe9yU9q
— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) May 26, 2021
The second factor behind the crypto market crash was U.S. Tax Day, which traditionally affects markets as investors liquidate some of their funds to prepare for their upcoming tax bill. Per his words, Tax Day cycles “hit local lows seven days before Tax Day” because it’s the time needed to liquidate holdings and move the money to a bank account.
The third factor were Elon Musk’s tweets on the cryptocurrency. After investing $1.5 billion in BTC, Tesla stopped accepting bitcoin payments earlier over environmental concerns. In some tweets, Musk implied the electric car maker would sell its entire BTC stash.
The price of bitcoin fell sharply from a near $64,000 all-time high to a $32,000 low over these three factors, but recovered shortly after. The cryptocurrency is now trading near $39,000.
The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any people mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only, and they do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading cryptoassets comes with a risk of financial loss.
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