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Valuation of avatar NFT: Take MekaVerse NFT with broken bubble as an example

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From MekaVerse NFTSince its launch for more than a month, the hype surrounding the NFT series seems to have ceased to exist. When the bubble disappears and the immediate effect of the NFT is not recognized, the price of the floor of this NFT series directly rises from nearly 10ETHIt plummeted to the current 1 ETH. If we are still considering it as the first collection object, then we can’t help but think objectively: how to value MekaVerse NFT?

MekaVerse is a collection of 8,888 randomly generated NFT avatars on the Ethereum blockchain. It is inspired by the term “mechas” used to describe giant humanoid robots driven by humans in Japanese culture. It is also one of the most anticipated NFT series. . The design of Mekas is very attractive. It is very nostalgic for those who like cartoons such as Gundam and Evangelion or modern movies such as Pacific Rim.

In fact, the valuation process of any NFT collection will consider the following factors: First, in order to analyze each work individually, we will consider its uniqueness and rarity. Although there is a correlation between works of art, it is actually a very subjective thing. Next, in order to analyze the collection as an NFT project, we considered different factors, including what effect you will have when you own one or more works; and the community around the project, the team behind it, and the collection Product distribution. Since the project will evolve naturally over time, it is very important to take these factors into consideration.

 

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MekaVerse: Collectible overview

After experiencing the “NFT craze” of this summer, we found that the NFT avatar series has become popular in social networks, and many people display it as an avatar picture in their personal information. At the same time, the owner can earn thousands or even millions of dollars in net profit from these collections. From this point of view, the MekaVerse series is very promising to become the next popular NFT. In fact, after the preview of the series of art collections, it caused a large-scale hype, so that before the release, MekaVerse had more than 100,000 community members on Discord.

In order to avoid the “Gas cost battle”, the MekaVerse team decided to use a lottery to ensure fairness and allow anyone to mint coins at a price of 0.2 ETH. The lottery was held on October 7, 2021, with 5,453 holders The creator cast nearly 8,600 Meka. After the casting was completed, the price of MekaVerse NFT was as high as 9 ETH in the secondary market. However, due to some problems with Meka’s high-quality 3D drawing function, MekaVerse NFT was postponed for a week before its release.

But then, some rumors about a fair lottery began to spread on social media. In fact, this rumor was triggered by a tweet that implies that there is unfair inside information because some wallets are for specific Mekas, and these Mekas have a very high level before the final metadata is disclosed. The value of it. Inside information in the NFT field suddenly became a hot topic at the time. In fact, just a few weeks ago, a well-knownOpenSeaMembers were involved in such scandals. As the rumors spread, the price of Mekas began to spiral downward. Of course, it can only be used as a pure avatar, and its lack of practicality is also a major reason for the price drop.

Mekas’ floor price plummeted all the way to 1 ETH, and it has been maintained for at least two weeks. Despite this series of events recently, MekaVerse is still ranked 15th in the NFT trading volume rankings. Since its launch 35 days ago, it has received more than $153.5 million in funds.

 

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Meka feature analysis

The following analysis is based on MekaVerse’s more than 9,000 transaction data, including 5,103 Mekas sold on the secondary market. Although there are more than 3,000 Mekas that have not been tracked, we believe that the selected samples are relatively statistically representative , So it can be used to identify the specific pattern of the NFT project.

These 8,888 Mekas are randomly generated by combining 10 attributes, which include 236 different features and color palettes. It is worth mentioning that among the 8,888 Mekas, 4 are in Legendary status and belong to different categories, so they are not considered as the object of analysis.

Analyzing the characteristics separately can give us a rough idea of ​​how rarity plays a role in each collection. In addition, this analysis method can also give us the opportunity to discover the characteristics of those collections that sell for high prices.

The most obvious attribute in MekaVerse is the type attribute. In randomly generated collections, hierarchical classification is usually the first attribute to be evaluated. In MekaVerse, according to the rarity, there are 4 different Mekas: OG Meka (50.31%), Mirage (21.46%), Gādian (16.29%) and F9 (11.88%).

 

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After analyzing the sales situation and distinguishing the different types of Meka, we found that this variable will change as the price changes. As expected, the average selling price of OG Meka (US$17,000) is generally lower than the average selling price of F9 (US$25,530). This is also consistent with the rarity of the different types of Meka mentioned earlier. 

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However, the price difference between different grades does not necessarily match the rarity. Let us look at an example after the metadata was released (October 15). Just after the metadata was released, the average selling price of OG Mekas was US$9,203, while the average selling price of F9 was US$15,288. It can be clearly seen that the prices of some grades of Meka collections are falling. In general, the rarity distribution and the price distribution trend are consistent.

 

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In the remaining attributes, we then analyze the “weapon” attribute. Surprisingly, although 76.6% of Meka did not carry weapons, this feature is not necessarily a factor in the price difference of the collection.

In this case, the pattern before and after the metadata was released did not change significantly. The price of Mekas without weapons is about $12,800. Rare weapons, such as MI ray guns (1.41%), OG Kannons (2.1%) or OG Smiley K1 (0.92%), although the rarity is high, the average transaction price is less than $14,000. On the other hand, the average selling prices of Mi Utopia (0.14%) and OG Cannon Brick (0.27%) are US$85,000 and US$101,000, respectively. It is worth noting that, in contrast to OG and Mirage, weapons do not increase the value of Gādian and F9 in Meka.  

 

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In assessing the price of Meka, material is another important attribute with considerable weight. Some of the rarest features in the MekaVerse series, the materials used mainly include Full Gold (0.07%), Full Silver (0.12%) and Sky (0.18%). There is no doubt that the average sales of works containing these materials are the highest. The price of MekaVerse floors using “Sky” materials can reach 18 ETH, while the prices of MekaVerse floors using Full Gold and Full Silver materials are 50 ETH and 60 ETH, respectively.

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If it is OG Meka, due to its high level, even if this type of Meka does not have more prominent features, it is still expensive. For example, OG Mekas has a Brick attribute (0.96%) and the average price is as high as 79,000 US dollars. The floor price of Meka is 6.5 ETH, which is approximately $30.700 at the time of writing.

In addition to the level of rarity, Meka’s color characteristics are another factor that affects the price. Light green (4.55%) and yellow (6.24%) Meka have higher average selling prices. It should be noted that these two colors only appear in OG Meka. In addition, the black (5.37%) and dark brown (15.97%) Meka sales prices are also relatively high.

 

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The remaining Meka attributes generally do not affect the price, but there are some special cases, such as: the floor price of Mekas that contains OG Glowing Eyes Brick (0.4%), OG Eyes Brick (0.52%) or MI Red Visor (0.41%) is higher than Other products in the series. The floor price of the OG series Meka is at least 6 ETH, the floor price of Red Visor Mirages is 3.5 ETH, and the average net income of a single sale of OG Helmet Brick (0.97%) can reach US$80,000.

All in all, the analysis of Meka features can provide some information for the valuation, and some combination features also play a very important role. Compared with rarity, the price of Meka with some special combination features is also quite high. As mentioned earlier, rarity is an important indicator of the potential value of NFT works, but if you want to evaluate the value of a complete collection, you also need to consider other factors.

Practical value analysis

After analyzing the characteristics of Mekas individually assessed, we will continue to study other factors that affect its collection value from a macro perspective. Over time, these factors will also become the key foundation of the project, so they are very worthy of attention.

One of the main shortcomings of Mekaverse is actually the lack of direct and tangible utility. Recently, the focus of many NFT collection projects has shifted. They hope to provide NFT owners with “benefits” by increasing the utility of the projects, rather than simply issuing coins to obtain passive income.

Earlier, MekaVerse has announced that it will launch an airdrop (perhaps following the approach of Larva Labs, the team behind CryptoPunks). Owners of Meka NFT will have the opportunity to obtain the second NFT series MekaBots of the project. It is reported that the airdrop ratio is 1:1. The snapshot information has not been announced yet.

In addition to the release of Meka Bots, MekaVerse’s development roadmap has other interesting milestones. If some go well, the practicality of the project will be further enhanced. For example, Mekaverse plans to launch a 3D printing service, which can turn each Meka into a physical doll, and may also release some project peripheral goods and clothing.

It is worth noting that the future of the MekaVerse project is still up in the air. So far, the project has not been very useful. If the MekaVerse-centered game can be introduced in the next stage , there may be a breakthrough.

MekaVerse community and behind-the-scenes team

For NFT projects, the community is undoubtedly one of the important factors for success, but in this regard, the MekaVerse community does not seem to be very mature. For example, on Twitter, we rarely see people using Meka avatars. In contrast, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) or Cool Cats and other leading NFT projects have higher community maturity.

Not only that, the performance of MekaVerse’s Discord community does not seem to be satisfactory. In October of this year, there were nearly 245,000 members in the Discord community of the project. However, due to continuous negative growth, more than 30,000 members withdrew from the group. As of now, the number of members in MekaVerse’s Discord community is approximately 211,000 members, but even so, MekaVerse is still One of the largest communities in the Discord NFT field.

 

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The team behind the MekaVerse project is another important valuation factor. Mattey Braccini and Matty Braccini are the co-founders of MekaVerse. Both are 3D artists in Paris. They have been working in the NFT field before the project started. Visit within the MekaVerse website. In addition, MekaVerse core team members also include digital artist and NFT collector Julien Dorland, who is currently the team’s event host on social platforms.

Although the rumors about fair distribution may not be perfectly resolved, the fact that the core and founding team are completely open is positive.

Meka NFT distribution status

The first concern is the independent wallet indicator. At the time of writing, 5.134 independent wallets hold at least one Meka, and the proportion of independent holders of MekaVerse is 57.82%. This is a very good indicator number. You must know that the proportion of independent holders of BAYC is 57.53%.

Next, let’s analyze whether MekaVerse has a “whale monopoly” problem. It is said that the top 5 MekaVerse holders only have 182 Meka in their wallets, and the “Whale Concentration Index” is only 2.04%, which means the project The degree of decentralization is very high, but given that MekaVerse is a newly launched NFT series, this situation is currently relatively common.

 

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Summarize

MekaVerse is a “well-behaved” NFT project. The project received a huge transaction volume on the first day of its launch, but then the transaction scale flattened out.

Although there is no “standard formula” to evaluate the value of Meka, certain factors play a major role in the valuation process, such as rarity, type, weapon, material, color, etc. When analyzing MekaVerse as a collection, there will definitely be mixed reviews.

Although NFT is developing rapidly, the entire industry is still in its infancy. 

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