Under the US election, BTC bulls and bears’ choice

November 3 is the US election official polling day, 6 pm EST to 1:00 orderly shutdown, which is Beijing at 7:00 on November 4 to 14:00. Generally speaking, the result will be known on the day of the general election. However, due to the surge in mailed votes this year, there is a high probability that the results will be delayed. The slowest is expected to be until November 23.

The US presidential election is different to the period in the US economy, social background split, more than a quarter of Americans to make a vote, ahead of record-breaking history. According to the British BOCAI company estimates that total funds under US president has exceeded $ 1 billion global betting, beyond all sporting events. I also bought TRUMPWIN tokens on FTX and bet on a month’s worth of food to bet on Trump’s win.

We are concerned about is not the purpose of election to see who is elected, but by a different candidate to win after the impact of the market caused by, for us, the most important thing is, what positive or negative effects of the US presidential election will produce what Bitcoin market.

US presidential election and Bitcoin

The easiest way to understand the impact of the U.S. election on Bitcoin is to refer to the past history. Since the birth of Bitcoin, there have been two U.S. presidential elections in 2012 and 2016, but the size of Bitcoin at that time Too small, in infancy, did not have any effect, so it lost valuable reference.

With the continuous expansion of Bitcoin’s market value and the entry of institutions, Bitcoin has become a new force that cannot be underestimated in the capital market. In other words, Bitcoin has the size and qualifications to be affected. Every time the US presidential election, the traditional capital markets will be glued to the results of the election, because of the different effects of different results to the market. For Bitcoin, this election may also have a greater impact on the market outlook.

The current Bitcoin market’s views on the U.S. election are divided into three factions: Trump optimistic, Biden positive, and final winner.

1. Trump’s empty faction

Trump published a view on social media in July 2019, clearly stating that he does not like all cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and that the value of cryptocurrencies fluctuates too much, is as worthless as the air, and encourages illegal behavior. Therefore, in the eyes of investors in the crypto market, Trump has been identified as an opponent of Bitcoin.

2. Biden favors

This faction believes that Biden’s coming to power will mean the expansion of ZF payments, which will be more conducive to the rise of Bitcoin and gold’s safe-haven assets. In the current situation, Biden’s support rate is higher than that of Trump, and Bitcoin will soon usher in a new one. rising cycle wheel.

3. The final winner

Bitcoin Bitcoin only with itself, no matter who the next US president is that bitcoin will continue to be the ultimate store of value assets. At the same time, no matter who is elected, the Fed will need to launch a second round of stimulus plan. The Fed will continue to print a lot of money to devalue the U.S. dollar. As the U.S. dollar depreciates, investors will use Bitcoin as a hedging tool.

These are the three most common views in the crypto world. The first view only represents Trump’s own views, and does not mean that Trump will attack cryptocurrencies as president. Second, a third category is a view which essentially classified as safe haven bit credits. At this stage, I always think Bitcoin is not a safe haven, a very simple truth, who is to hedge and buy bitcoins, bitcoin must be classified in risk assets.

ma8xfm6hs8pb3rcxheadingYou can see from the chart, the trend in recent years Bitcoin broadly in line with US stocks, it is simple, the impact on the US election is the impact on stocks of Bitcoin. Thus bold conclusion, Biden elected, will lead directly to Bitcoin go bear.

Biden elected = Bitcoin bear market

As mentioned above, the Bitcoin market is highly correlated with U.S. stocks. The impact of the U.S. election on U.S. stocks is the impact on Bitcoin. The following explains why Biden’s coming to power will directly lead to a bear market in U.S. stocks?

First understand Biden’s ruling policy, which can be simply classified as big welfare, big ZF, and fairness. It looks beautiful, but anyone who has read history knows that Biden’s path has destroyed the foundation of free economic development. In the short term, stocks are most worried about Biden’s tax reform policy.

Biden’s tax reform plan would raise taxes for the United States over the next decade to $ 3.8 trillion, which means higher taxes, resulting in a chain reaction of lower corporate profits and lower economic growth. And imposing higher taxes on the rich will hit their spending, which will drag down economic growth.

There is no meaning, Biden’s election will directly undermine the foundation of the US economy continue to erode the power of people to create, the US economy will enter a backwater, US stocks will have to end large long bull cycle.

US stocks on the US presidential election is the impact on Bitcoin, the US stock market to go bear, Bitcoin can be better than you?

Which side should bet?

I personally chose Trump without hesitation.

And minzhu opposite party, the Republican Party came to power after the tax cut public spending, reduce obstacles to market, while the stock market and economic Trump has always been regarded as the most important achievement is Dinghaishenzhen market economic path. Biden other hand, has continued to destroy the foundation of the market economy, was also exposed various doors. At present, Biden’s approval rating is ahead of Trump, but nothing is possible until the dust settles.

If Biden wins, BTC will follow the US stock market and enter a bear market.

This time, I had to bet behind Trump.

What do you think?

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